Strategy,theory, and history: Operation Husky 1943

In his 1987 work Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1987), Edward Luttwak described strategy as a field of activity characterised not only by an innately complex relationship between designs, actions and outcomes, but so too by the frequent disparity between its theory and praxis. Similar observations on this subject have since been made by Richard K. Betts, Lawrence Freedman and Antulio Echevarria II. This article will use the Allied invasion of Sicily in July–August 1943 as a vehicle through which to test these theories against a signal event in the European theatre of the Second World War. It will illustrate how Operation Husky and its aftermath are a paradigm of the confusing and often illogical course of events associated with the process of formulating strategy and waging war. In so doing it demonstrates the benefits of using strategic theory to illuminate events and so move beyond the often insular focus of campaign histories, and simultaneously reinforces the importance of military history in informing a theoretical understanding of strategy.     

Operational idealism: doctrine development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army under Soviet threat, 1969–1989

This article analyses the doctrine development of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) coping with the Soviet military threat between 1969 and 1989. In the 1970s, the PLA applied a doctrine of ‘active defence and luring the enemy into depth’ based on its traditional operational art. In 1980, the PLA decided to focus its doctrine on positional defence. In 1986, the PLA introduced ‘integrated operations and prioritised strike’, a generalised doctrine that originated from its war history. Many organisational and intellectual challenges in peacetime doctrine development contributed to the PLA’s operational idealism, including its aging leadership, command structure, attitude towards its previous experience, limited analysis of contemporary military developments, and failure in test and validation of doctrines. In the post-Cold War decade, many of these challenges persisted in spite of military modernization efforts. The ongoing military reform has to address these challenges and improve the PLA doctrine development in peacetime.     

基于二维量度的复杂设备预防性维修决策优化

针对使用与维修具有两个测量维度的复杂设备,开展了其预防性维修决策的优化研究。基于二维量度的故障模式,给出了二维故障率的定量描述方法;分析了其预防性更换过程的基本过程,探讨了二维量度下更换周期对维修效果的影响,并从经济性角度建立了二维工龄更换费用模型;最后,采用算例的形式,对某设备维修决策同时考虑日历使用时间和行驶里程的情况,进行了二维更换间隔期的优化求解,从而验证了所建立方法与模型的实用性。     

美军维修改革发展研究

维修保障是武器装备形成战斗力的关键要素。随着国际形势和美国国内经济、科技等方面的发展变化,美军的维修策略、维修技术以及维修保障信息化等方面也在不断变革。总结了2000年前后至今,美军在维修保障方面的重大变革,对其发展趋势进行了预测,并结合我军装备保障实际,积极探索切实可行的有效对策。     

基于三方动态博弈模型的网络生存防御策略优化配置

针对网络攻防环境中防御方以提高系统生存能力为目的所进行的最优生存防御策略的选取问题,提出了一种基于完全信息动态博弈理论的生存防御策略优化配置算法。将恶意攻击方、故障意外事件及防御方作为博弈的参与人,提出了一种混合战略模式下的三方动态博弈模型,对博弈的主要信息要素进行了说明,以混合战略纳什均衡理论为基础,将原纳什均衡条件式的表达式转化为可计算数值结果的表达式,并据此增加了近似的概念,最后,将提出的模型和近似纳什均衡求解算法应用到一个网络实例中,结果证明了模型和算法的可行性和有效性。     

美国陆军数据战略目标及实施

为深入研究美陆军数据战略目标及实施策略,为我军数据战略研究提供借鉴,文章对美陆军2016年发布的最新《陆军数据战略》进行分析,指出其目标是实现数据的可视化、可获取、可信任、可理解和互操作,并对美陆军数据战略的具体实施策略进行了剖析,指出美国陆军数据战略推动的是美军军事作战理论转型,从"网络为中心"转变为以"数据为中心"作战理念,其核心意图在于以数据优势实现指挥决策优势。     

一种基于部分搜索的GNSS模糊度解算方法

为解决LAMBDA算法搜索策略效率不高的问题,提出了一种基于部分搜索的模糊度解算新方法。该方法的解算成功率接近LAMBDA算法,且只需对最后3维模糊度元素采取搜索策略。同时,通过合理设定搜索椭球的大小和搜索策略;大大提高了搜索效率。通过实验对该新算法与Bootraping算法、LAMBDA算法进行了比较分析,进一步验证了该新算法的有效性。     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

电传动装甲车辆电源系统建模与仿真

电源系统是电传动装甲车辆的核心,对其进行建模与仿真研究具有重要意义。电源系统的非线性特性导致了建模困难、模型精度低以及模型实用性差等难题,针对不同的部件特性采取不同的方法建立其仿真模型,完成了基于模糊控制的系统多目标优化功率分配策略研究。并在此基础上进行了部件和系统两个层次的仿真试验,证明所建模型能够较好地反映电传动车辆电源系统的工作特性。     

军队院校文化管理模式初探

管理现代化是一所大学成功办学的基本标志。军队院校文化管理理论的提出是时代发展的必然要求。军队院校实施文化管理的核心内容及基本策略就是建设好、使用好自己的特色文化,为此,管理者应注意处理好有为管理与无为管理、柔性管理与刚性管理、部门主管与分工合作、硬件投入与软件提升四个方面的关系。